Should you buy the dip, or sell the rip?
By the time it takes for you and I to respond, chances are, the markets have already changed – hence why it’s so challenging to invest in the short term based purely on news cycles.
So in this one, is Trump responsible for market corrections? Is AI dead? And what if healthcare is the next big tech play?
I recently sat down with Tom Deacon, a senior investment analyst at Mint Asset Management, on the Everyday Investor podcast to unpack these questions. Tom, who focuses on stock research for New Zealand and Australian-listed companies in the healthcare and technology sectors, offered a sharp perspective on the chaotic market movements since Donald Trump’s election in November 2024, alongside the broader implications of AI and healthcare innovation.
Trump’s Tariff Surprise: A Market Jolt
Since Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. markets have continued their march upwards, yet more recently we’ve seen significant volatility (big changes in price over the short term). The Nasdaq, for instance, is down approximately 6% from its peak, with a slight recovery overnight as of mid-March 2025. Bitcoin has also taken a hit (mind you, that’s to be expected!). But is the market correction we’re experience solely his doing?
“The tariff surprise caught the street off guard. Many thought he was bluffing, but it doesn’t appear to be the case.”
The threat of a trade war looms large, with tariffs potentially driving up consumer prices. This complicates the Federal Reserve’s job, possibly leading to higher interest rates for longer—a scenario that’s particularly tough on growth assets like tech stocks, where much of the value lies in future earnings. Higher prices could also slow consumer demand, adding to the risk of potential U.S. recession. As the world’s largest consumer market, a U.S. downturn would ripple globally. While it could also be argued he’s laying the ground work for some significant growth, in the short term, it’s creating a lot of uncertainty.
But it’s not just tariffs shaking things up. There’s a confluence of events including a cooling of the AI hype that’s been propelling markets for years. Nvidia, a poster child for the AI boom, posted stellar Q4 revenue of $39 billion—up 78% year-on-year—but investors are questioning whether the momentum is fading. Have we seen a peak with AI? The U.S. is a heavily momentum-driven market, so it’s inevitable at some stage that should earnings not continue to grow exponentially, prices will factor it in.
Are Tariff Risks Priced In—or Is More Pain Coming?
Markets are down, but not drastically so. Have tariff risks been fully absorbed, or is there more volatility ahead? It may be too early to tell (which is why it’s so risky trying to trade or time this news. On one hand, the bond market doesn’t buy the tariff strategy, and you can reference the longer-term bond yields rising as evidence of that. It’s a sign that inflation expectations are climbing, countering Trump’s apparent goal of lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is slipping as “U.S. exceptionalism” comes into question, and gold prices near all-time highs signal a flight to safety.
Trump’s chaotic approach might be a deliberate “carrot and stick” tactic to extract concessions from allies—like increased defense spending in Europe. It’s a bold and perhaps effective strategy (we’ll see), but if it backfires, it could mean slower U.S. growth and an even broader sell-off. For investors, the question remains: buy the dip now, sell the rip, or just tread water. Sometimes volatility comes before, or after significant returns. In the absence of knowing with certainty which way things will go it’s important to remember the market’s already factored in the consensus view.
Meanwhile, is AI Dead?
The AI thematic has been a market darling, but recent sell-offs in tech giants like Meta, Google, and Microsoft suggest a shift. When you see deceleration in trends, it can drag down everything associated with it. A slow down in the growth rate isn’t a sign AI is dead however – technology doesn’t move in a straight line. AI may simply be maturing. Nvidia’s robust chip demand from hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft shows the infrastructure build-out continues, even if momentum is slowing.
Beyond hardware, AI is seeping into software and services. “You’re seeing it proliferate everywhere—manufacturing, supply chain, finance, e-commerce,” Tom said, drawing parallels to the dot-com era. Back then, fiber-optic “picks and shovels” companies thrived first, followed by software giants like Amazon. Today, chipmakers like Nvidia lead, but the next wave—think OpenAI or Salesforce’s AI tools—is trickling down. “The pace of innovation has accelerated,” he added. “AI is automating code-writing, changing cost structures for businesses.”
At Mint, Tom’s team is exploring AI agents—autonomous tools that could act as “junior analysts,” scouring data 24/7 to validate investment theses. “Imagine waking up to an inbox with overnight insights,” he said. “It’s about speed and accuracy—getting the edge before the market catches up.”
Healthcare: The Next Big Tech Play?
If AI’s growth is moderating, could healthcare be the next frontier? Tom thinks so. “It’s a smorgasbord of opportunity,” he enthused. Large pharma has long used AI for drug discovery, but the pace is quickening. Take Telix, a company in Mint’s portfolio, which develops radionuclide therapies for cancer. “AI lets you test countless molecular combinations efficiently,” Tom explained. “What once took years in a lab can now be simulated with synthetic data.”
This isn’t just about cancer. Rare diseases, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s could benefit too, as AI lowers R&D barriers. “It’s a game-changer for humanity,” Tom said, though he noted profitability still drives these efforts. AstraZeneca’s use of quantum computing hints at what’s next—an even faster discovery pipeline.
Life expectancy could also soar. “For every year we’re alive, a quarter-year might be added,” Tom reflected, citing a podcast stat. “That’s exponential.” But it raises questions: who gets access? And what about cognitive decline? Companies like Neuron (ASX: NEU) are tackling the latter, potentially extending not just life, but quality of life. Financially, this means rethinking retirement planning—$2 million might not cut it if you’re living to 150.
The Future: Utopia or Dystopia?
So, where are we headed? Tom sees a mixed bag by 2040—robots in homes for the affluent, easing daily chores, but a potential dystopian turn decades later if AI goes unchecked. “This paradigm is an accelerant,” he said. “Short-term, it’ll change lives for the better; longer-term, maybe not.” For investors, he advises embracing AI in workflows to stay ahead. “Don’t be scared of it—it’ll find you if you hide.”
Back to Trump: is he the market’s villain? Not entirely. “Ideologies cloud judgment,” Tom warned, noting Trump’s narcissism shapes his tariff tantrums. But markets are bigger than one man—they’re grappling with tariffs, AI shifts, and healthcare’s rise. Buy the dip or sell the rip? “Speed to market matters,” Tom said. “Get the edge, but know the crowd can overreact.”
It’s an imperfect world out there, but if you can sift signal from noise, you’re more likely to place your money today in the things that will be huge tomorrow.
