The world is changing

Trade wars, tariffs, and a new way of thinking about money are all hitting at once. If you’re an everyday investor, this is about your wealth, your future, and how to play the game when old rules are being followed.

Trade’s Getting Messy, and It’s Not Just Talk

Since Trump took office, global trade’s been turned on its head. You’ve heard about the tariffs (think taxes on imports) on big players like China, Canada, and Mexico. We’re talking 25% on Chinese goods, 10% on Canadian energy, and more. Other countries aren’t sitting still; Canada’s hitting back with tariffs on U.S. cars. The result? The World Trade Organization says global trade could shrink in 2025, with U.S.-China trade possibly dropping a jaw-dropping 81% The Guardian.
If you’re invested in companies tied to global supply chains (think tech or retail), expect some turbulence. China’s pivoting to trade with Europe and Vietnam, while the U.S. loses ground. This isn’t a blip; it’s a new reality.

Nations Are Going “Me First”—Here’s Why It Matters

Neo-mercantilism. Don’t let the name scare you. It just means countries are putting their own economies first.  Trump’s tariffs are a textbook example, designed to protect U.S. jobs and industries (The Diplomat). 
But it’s not just the U.S. –  China’s diversifying its trade partners, also, and other nations are throwing up their own barriers. The Center for Strategic and International Studies calls this a “neo-mercantilist moment,” where everyone’s more worried about their own backyard than playing nice globally. For us – it might mean higher costs for imported goods and maybe even higher interest rates, as countries feel pressure to allow their currencies to appreciate against the U.S. dollar. If trade wars escalate, the world could tip into a recession, right about the same time that NZ is already in one.

Money’s Going Digital, and It’s a Big Deal

While this ‘Back to The Future’ scene unfolds with global trade, money itself is changing. Bitcoin and digital assets aren’t just for tech nerds anymore, or the high risk speculators on the fringe. It’s hitting the mainstream, and fast. Countries like El Salvador are already holding Bitcoin as a reserve, and experts predict twice as many nations could join them in 2025, especially with global debt over $322.9 trillion. Even the U.S., with its crypto-friendly administration, might start stashing Bitcoin.
Big players are in this too, like BlackRock and Fidelity, who control over 70% of Bitcoin ETF assets. Downloading a wallet, while it’s ideal for a range of other reasons, is quickly being ditched by a different market searching for easier access on their traditional platforms (Cointelegraph). 
This isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about understanding that digital assets are fast becoming a backup plan for large financial institutions, publicly listed companies, and even nation states, as protection from an uncertain world. If tariffs and trade wars push inflation up, Bitcoin’s fixed supply could make it an even safer bet, unlike cash losing value in your bank account. 

What This Means for Your Money

So, what do you do? First, don’t panic. The shift to neo-mercantilism and digital money is happening, but it’s not Armageddon. Here’s how to think about it:
  • Trade and Tariffs: Look at your portfolio. If you’re heavy in global companies like Apple or Nike, try to understand how supply chain could affect their bottom line. Consider U.S.-focused firms in manufacturing or energy that could benefit from “America First” policies. Remember diversification: trade wars are unpredictable.
  • Neo-Mercantilism: This trend favors local economies but risks higher prices and slower growth. Keep an eye on inflation and interest rates. Bonds or dividend stocks might offer stability if markets wobble, but even this is uncertain.
  • Digital Assets: Don’t dismiss Bitcoin as speculative. Save small amounts of your wealth in Bitcoin that you hold in your own wallet, or through an ETF. Don’t bet the farm hoping for quick wins – this is digital savings technology for long-term wealth accumulation.
Forget the free-trade, low-tariff days of the 2000’s. Nations are doubling down on self-interest, and money’s evolving to match. This isn’t just about investing; it’s about positioning yourself for a future where the rules are different. Digital assets aren’t a side hustle – they’re part of the new wealth playbook. Most importantly – don’t let the old world’s rules blind you to the new world coming.